- March 29, 2023
- Posted by: Noureldeen Al Hammoury
Markets continue to trade within the same range. This is not surprising, we already knew this since March 3rd. However, this tight range is about to end soon. The next key date as we mentioned before is April 3rd, which is next Monday.
Why April 3rd?
S&P500 February 2nd high was at 4195.44. From the 1920s until today, there is a notable relationship between the actual price and the number of days when the trend should change.
The current theory suggests an end of the current downside move which began in February within 41.9 trading days, which would be at the end of April 3rd. We also saw the same example since the beginning of the recent bear market last year. If you go back and check the charts, you will find that each top and bottom are correlated through the price of a top and the number of days ahead. You will be amazed.
Will discuss this in more detail during a live trading session next week.
There is no change here, so far the trade is in profit with over 50 pips. We maintain our initial target at 0.6350 followed by 0.6500. the invalidation of this trade would be if NZDUSD breaks below 0.6155
AUDUSD on Watch
Australia’s inflation showed a notable slowing down last month, declining to 6.8% vs. 7.4%, much lower than the 7.1% anticipated. This is enough to keep the RBA away from any rate hikes. Yet, this doesn’t necessarily mean that AUD will be under pressure.
AUDUSD downside retracement since Feb 3rd top is just another short-term retracement, which was completed with 61.8% Fib on March 10th. Also, the next upside move will be based on USD weakness more than AUD strength.
In the coming days, probably Friday, we will execute a new long position if it confirms the breakout, while we will be targeting 0.6850 followed by 0.69 and 0.70 within two weeks.
rallied over the past three sessions towards 61.77. In the coming days, any downside retracement will be the opportunity to buy and hold. Somewhere around $61, probably before the end of Friday’s trading session.
Brent and WTI spiked by over 5% since the beginning of this week. We missed the entry for sure. Therefore, we will wait for a retracement first before joining the trend, probably next week.
So far these are the main focus for us, whenever there is a new opportunity, I will post it here and in the group.