A Possible Shift in Bond Yields

A Possible Shift in Bond Yields: Is the Market Underestimating the Next Move?

The Pattern: Time and Yield Cycles

For over a year, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield has followed a distinct pattern—each rally has lasted for a set period before reversing sharply. Here’s what we’ve seen:

• 152 days up → 1.52% gain → drop
• 136 days up → 1.36% gain → drop
• 82 days up → 0.82% gain → drop
• 100 days up → 1.00% gain → drop (current cycle)

This repeating relationship between time and price movement suggests that yields may have topped out again, and we could be on the verge of a decline towards 4.00% from the current 4.50%.

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