Ahead of today’s FOMC Decision, our economic tracker for the US economy since June of last year until today shows signs of improvement. The most important factor is that inflation is picking up faster than estimated before, which may prove that the Federal Reserve is right about inflation.

 

With Today’s figures, regardless of the weakness in manufacturing and retail data, the Federal Reserve has no reason to be dovish, except that the wages growth has disappointed. However they might take down some of their economic projections along with the global economic slowing down and the risk of deflation. Unemployment is below 5% and inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve target. However, we see no rate hike in this meeting, but its likely to give us more guidance on whether the next rate hike would be before June or after.

 

 

USD may keep up the bullish momentum for the time being, facing a solid resistance around 97.0 which represents its 200 DAY MA followed by 97.70 which represents its 50 DAY MA.