June Rate Hike on the Table Again

Post date: Thursday, May 19 , 2016 - 07:58 UTC
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The Federal Reserve meeting minutes came in with a hawkish tone, to which markets reacted with both surprise and confusion, particularly given that the FOMC statement two weeks ago was dovish.

 

The meeting minutes highlighted two major points: the first being “most officials saw a June hike likely if the economy warranted” and the second “there are a range of views on whether data would support a June rate hike.” These points further contributed to uncertainty but also increased estimates for a June rate hike. As a result, the US Dollar rallied across the board testing its 95.20’s resistance area, while US equities lost early gains and closed the day unchanged. Moreover, futures are lower with an average of 0.2% so far.

 

USD Index Major Levels

 

Despite yesterday’s rally in the US Dollar, the index remains below its 95.20’s resistance area. Moreover, the technical indicators appear heavily overbought, which is likely to limit the current rally. As long as the Index stays below 95.20’s in the coming ours, the outlook will likely remain bearish.

 

Mixed Asian Data

 

Looking at Asia today, economic releases from Japan and Australia were mixed, but the effect of yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes continued to overshadow the figures. In Japan, Core Machinery Orders increased by the most in two months, rising by 5.5% in March, in spite of estimates of a decline by -1.9%. The YoY also advanced to 3.2% up from -0.7%.

 

In Australia, the Jobs report came in with mixed outcomes. The economy added a net of 10.8K new jobs in April. The economy, however, lost around -9.3K of full time jobs and replaced them with 20.2K new part-time jobs. The good news was is that the unemployment rate remains stable at 5.7% despite the fact that the estimates were to rise further to 5.8%. Despite this good news, the Aussie continued to decline further all the way below 0.72 earlier this morning.

 

S&P500 Bearish Outlook Unchanged

 

The SPX Index is showing another interesting pattern as the Index closed yesterday’s trading below its 50 DAY MA. With no new record highs in the past year, this would likely keep the bearish outlook unchanged with a possibility to test 2025 in the coming days.

 

EURUSD Below 50 DAY MA

 

The Euro failed to stabilize above its 50 DAY MA, declining back all the way to 1.1220’s post-FOMC Meeting Minutes, closing yesterday’s trading below that MA for the first time since March. However, the technical indicators appear heavily oversold, which could suggest another upside rally in the coming days. The current decline could still be considered a short term retracement before the trend resumes. The next obstacle support stands at 1.1150 and 1.1125, which represents its 100 DAY MA and 61.8% retracement respectively.

 

GBPUSD Retesting 1.4590 Resistance

 

The British Pound managed to rally yesterday on new Brexit poll data showing more than 55% of respondents are in favor of staying in the European Union.  This resulted in a massive spike, testing its 1.4590/1.46 resistance area. However, there has still been no clear break above that resistance so far. Markets today will be looking closely at UK Retail Sales figures, which could very well serve as the catalyst for another spike should the data indicate notable improvement. Otherwise, 1.45 could be seen again today.

 

Strong US Data | USD Remains Under Pressure

Post date: Tuesday, May 17 , 2016 - 14:34 UTC
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The US economic releases came in mostly positive, including MoM inflation figures, while the YoY CPI eased back slightly as widely expected. Moreover, the housing related data came in much better than expected, including the Housing Starts and the Building Permits. Furthermore, The Capacity Utilization Rate and the Industrial Production, both beats the estimates. Yet, the US Dollar managed to rally for a short period of time, before erasing these gains, except against the British pound, which remains under pressure following today’s inflation data.

 

US Core Inflation Slowed in April

 

Despite the notable increase in the MoM CPI, which increased by the most since February of 2013, the Core CPI YoY slowed down for the second month in a row, easing back to 2.1%, which is the lowest level since December of last year. However, the YoY CPI ticked higher again to 1.13% up from 0.9% as widely expected. Such mixed data keeps the markets uncertain regarding June rate hike. The Fed Fund Futures pricing in 4% chance only.

 

Higher Housing Starts & Building Permits in April

 

The US Housing Starts posted the biggest monthly increase in two months, rising by 6.6% in April after declining by -9.4% in March, despite the fact that the estimates were to rise by 3.3% only. The interesting reading was from the Building Permits, which increased for the first time this year, rising by 3.6% in April after declining for four months in a row. Yet, the Building Permits remains at the lowest level since March of last year.

 

Industrial Production Soared in April

 

The US Industrial Production came in with a positive surprise today, rising by more than double than the estimates, rising by 0.66% in April, while the estimates were to rise by 0.3% only. This is the biggest MoM increase since December of 2014. However, March’s reading has been revised lower, to be the biggest decline since 2009. This adds more uncertainty  toward Q2 GDP and the Federal Reserve’s decision in June.

 

DXY Below 50 DAY MA

 

The US Dollar is still trading below its 50 DAY MA for the past two trading days, while the technical indicators are heavily overbought , which keeps the bearish outlook for the US Dollar Index unchanged, moreover, any upside rally is likely to be limited below 95.20. For the time being, there is a high possibility to retest 94.0 support area in the coming hours.

 

Attachments

US CPI MoM US Building Permits US Industrial Production USD Index Daily

UK Inflation Slowed | Eyes on US Inflation Ahead

Post date: Tuesday, May 17 , 2016 - 10:34 UTC
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The UK data, including CPI, Core CPI, RPI and PPI did not meet expectations, while housing data came in higher. As a result, the British Pound eased some of its early gains but is still higher across the board. This can most likely be attributed to a weaker US Dollar and not stronger GBP. 

 

Weaker UK Inflation in April

 

Core Inflation slowed down more than expected, declining to the lowest level since February, to 1.2% in April down from 1.5%, while the estimates were to decline to 1.5%. The YoY CPI also slowed down to the lowest in two months to 0.3%, while the estimates were to remain stable at 0.5%. Finally, the MoM CPI posted the weakest increase since January of this year, rising by 0.1%, while it had been expected to rise by 0.3%.

 

Mixed PPI Data

 

The UK PPI figures came in mostly weaker than expected compared to previous readings, including the MoM & YoY PPI Input, while the Core PPI output showed some improvement. The YoY Core PPI increased to the highest level since January of last year, rising to 0.5% up from 0.3%. This is also the third monthly increase in a row and one we have not seen since 2010.

 

UK’s House Price Rises in March

 

Surprisingly, the ONS House Price Index in the UK advanced notably all the way to 9.0% in March up from 7.6% in February of this year, reaching the highest level since March of last year. This is also the third largest increase since 2014.

 

GBPUSD Bullish Signs

 

The British Pound eased some of its early gains right after the inflation data, reaching as low as 1.4450’s. However, that level held and the pair is recovering gradually, trading around 1.4490’s at the time this report was released. The technical indicators are turning higher on most time frames, and the 50 DAY MA is crossing over its 100 DAY MA, which is seen as another positive signal. However, such a bullish outlook may need another catalyst, which might come from US data later today. The obstacle resistances remains at 1.45 and 1.4550.

 

Attachments

UK Core CPI YoY UK PPI Output Core YoY UK House Price Index YoY GBPUSD - Daily

UK’s Super Thursday Ahead

Post date: Thursday, May 12 , 2016 - 10:23 UTC
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USDX Outlook

 

With the lack of fundamentals throughout the week, the US Dollar continued moving higher in line with previous estimates continuing a sixth day of consecutive gains, before declining back below 94.00 and closing yesterday’s trading with a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. Many analysts believe this to be a signal that the upside retracement may be over. Moreover, the technical indicators appear overbought, which could also suggest that the upside move is over and/or likely to be limited going forward. Many analysts maintain their bearish outlook for the US Dollar Index as long as it stays below 95.20’s.

 

BoE Inflation Report & Decision

 

There are many economic releases and events which are expected to have a notable impact on the markets, particularly during the European session as investors await the Bank of England Inflation Report, BoE decision and the MPC meeting minutes—also known as Super Thursday in the UK.

 

The estimates are not particularly positive given the fact that most of the sectors are weakening, including manufacturing, construction and the services. This likely eases the chances for any rate hike this year, and could potentially push the BoE to be dovish in today’s meeting.

 

GBP May Decline Further

 

For the time being, the GBPUSD continued to trade within analyst estimates, declining back below 1.44 only in the past few days. There appear to be two solid supports which should be watched carefully today, at 1.4360, which is the 100 DMA, and at 1.4330, which is the 50 DAY MA. Expectations are that both are likely to hold. However, a dovish BoE today may indeed be the catalyst for further declines ahead.

 

Attachments

UK Economic Tracker

Solid Wages Growth | Disappointing NFP | USD Higher

Post date: Friday, May 06 , 2016 - 14:03 UTC
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As notes in our Pre-US Jobs Report article, wages are key and are likely to overshadow any negative outcome from NFP and/or unemployment rate.

 

The US Economy added 160K new jobs in April, lower than the 200K estimated. This was in line with previous estimates for a weaker NFP due to a slow down in employment in various sectors, as well as the notable decline in Philly Fed Employment Component. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5%.

 

The wages figures came in very solid. The MoM Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.3% as widely expected, while the previous reading has been revised lower to a growth of 0.2% instead of 0.3%. Despite this, today’s reading is still strong. More importantly, the YoY Average Hourly Earnings advanced to the highest level since January of this year, rising to 2.5% up from 2.3%, which is higher than the 2.4% estimated. This is in line with the Federal Reserve’s estimates, which many believe brings back the possibility for a rate hike in June.

 

As a result of today’s report, the US Dollar declined sharply initially.  However, it recovered its losses and rallied all the way back to 93.60’s. It still, however, is trading below its 61.8% Fibo Retracement which stands at 93.94. The Dollar bids is likely to remain on the rise following today’s data, but a break above that resistance would still be needed to clear the way for further gains.

USD Remains Strong Despite ADP Disappointment

Post date: Wednesday, May 04 , 2016 - 17:46 UTC
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The US Dollar continues to rise all day, even following the notable disappointment in ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figures. This is likely attributable to the Unit Labor Cost Index which soared by the most since Q4 of 2014, and increases estimates for higher inflation and wages in the coming months.

 

ADP Non-Farm Posts The Weakest Growth Since April 2013

 

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change surprisingly posted the weakest reading since April of 2013, adding 155K new jobs in April, despite the fact that estimates an addition of approximately 195K. Moreover, the previous reading has been revised slightly lower to 194K instead of 200K. This may be an indication of a softer NFP on Friday.

 

Trade Balance Deficit Narrowed Sharply in March

 

The Trade Balance deficit came in better than expected, narrowing to the lowest level since February of last year at -40.4B in March compared to -47.0B in February, while the estimates were to narrow back to -41.2B only. However, exports declined by the most in two months, declining by -0.9%. As a result, the decline in the trade deficit came in mainly due to falling imports, which declined by the most since 2009, declining by -3.6%. An upside revision in Q1 GDP is likely possible following today's decline in the trade deficit.

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Advanced in April

 

More good news came in from the services sector today. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI advanced for the second month in a row, rising to the highest level since December of last year, rising to 55.7 up from 54.5 during the month of April, while estimates were a slight rise to only 54.8.

 

Factory Orders & Durable Goods

 

The Factory Orders came in as a positive surprise, rising by the most in two months, rising by 1.1%, while the estimates were to rise by 0.8% only. Moreover, the Core Factory Orders advanced by 0.8%, the largest MoM rise since June of 2014. On the other hand, the final reading of March's Durable Goods Orders came in unrevised. Durable Goods Orders remained at 0.8%, while Core Orders were expected to be revised higher to a decline of -0.1% instead of -0.2%.

 

GBPUSD Bearish Outlook Remains

 

The British Pound continued to decline further on the back of weaker Construction PMI data today following yesterday's Manufacturing PMI contraction surprise. The pair eased back all the way back to 1.4470's which represents another notable support. However, further declines are yet to be seen. A clear breakthrough that support could clear the way for further declines toward 1.4380's.

 

USDCAD Major Upside Reversal

 

USDCAD saw a notable rise in the last several days, particularly after weaker than expected GDP figures and a wider trade deficit. Such a reversal potentially strengthens signs that an upside trend is developing. Should today's close near the highs, it could possibly be viewed as a confirmation of further gains ahead. USDCAD continues to be on our watch list for the next few months, which could potentially advance to new levels above 1.30.

 

Attachments

USD Index - Daily US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change US Trade Balance US Imports MoM US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI US Core Factory Orders MoM GBPUSD Daily USDCAD - Daily

USD Set To Rise Ahead of NFP on Friday

Post date: Wednesday, May 04 , 2016 - 08:37 UTC
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USD Technical-Based Retracement

 

The US Dollar Index decline at the beginning of yesterday’s trading reached as low as 91.90. However, the index quickly spiked back up, recovering all the way back to 93.10 led by commodities currencies. For the time being the 92.0 support area remains solid and with yesterday’s bullish shooting star, all indications are that there will likely be an upside retracement before the down trend line resumes. Despite this, a confirmation is still needed to confirm a short-term retracement  which may come from today’s economic releases from the US.

 

Verbal Intervention by BoJ Chairman

 

The Japanese Yen continued to strengthen yesterday, declining all the way back to 105.50 before quickly recovering all the way to 107.20’s on comments from the Bank of Japan Chairman, who  reassured the markets that they were ready to intervene with more measures and stimulus if needed. 105.25 continues to be seen as a solid support as it represents its 200 WEEK MA. In the meantime, the upside retracement Is likely to be limited below 107.70’s, which represents a solid resistance area.

 

Gold & Silver Bullish Outlook Remains

 

Gold and Silver also continued to rise further before declining back yesterday. Gold attempted to stabilize above 1300 while Silver touched the $18 mark before declining back today and yesterday to 17.20’s and 1280’s. The current decline is likely to be another short-term retracement before the trend resumes. Gold may find new bids around $1270, while Silver buyers might show up around $17.

 

EURUSD Failed At 1.16

 

The Euro advanced all the way to 1.16 before declining back yesterday and earlier this morning to 1.1475. Notwithstanding, the Euro remains very strong especially after the clear breakout above 1.1420’s. Yesterday’s bearish shooting star suggests a short term retracement toward 1.1420’s where buyers are likely to appear.

 

GBPUSD Weakness Set To Accelerate

 

 

The British Pound also spiked all the way to 1.4770 before declining back below 1.4550. The British pound outlook continues to remain bearish, especially after the Manufacturing PMI data which declined by the most in three years.  This appears to reinforce the bearish outlook, and the pair may retest 1.4324 in the coming weeks.

 

Attachments

USDX Daily USDJPY - Daily Gold - Daily Silver Daily EURUSD Daily GBPUSD Daily UK Construction PMI

Central Bank Policies remain unchanged, but for how long?

Post date: Thursday, April 28 , 2016 - 11:51 UTC
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Traders can forget the Federal Reserve’s FOMC ‘balanced’ statement, the RBNZ dovish remarks, the NZD spike and just concentrate on the BoJ decision today. Last week, a BoJ advisor fueled market expectations that there would be action by the BoJ today, given the fact that the economic releases had weakened recently. In addition, the inflation figures were not good, showing that Japan is back in to deflation – all the indicators seemed to be pointing to further intervention.  However, the BOJ surprised the markets by leaving their policies unchanged, which has forced Asia, Europe stocks and US futures down. Moreover, the Japanese Yen soared by more than 2% across the board, while USDJPY declined by more than 3% so far. Gold and Silver added more than 1% while the Dollar Index has lost more than 1% at the time of this report.

 

It seems that the BoJ is very cautious and reluctant to act again, the BoJ introduced negative rates in its previous decision, but we all know that -0.1% might not be enough to boost inflation. Even though it has left its policy unchanged, they may still intervene at any time, especially if the USDJPY slides below 107.60’s. Therefore, traders needs to be very cautious in the coming hours as the BoJ is likely to be active in the foreign exchange market. Yet, USDJPY outlook remains bearish, with a possibility to test 107.60’s in the coming hours.

 

FOMC Balanced Statement

 

The Federal Reserve kept the current policy unchanged as widely expected. However, the bank is more confident about the global developments, and has removed “global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks” from the statement, which is considered to be a hawkish move. Yet, the bank noted that slower growth is still a concern and rates will remain below the longer run levels. Moreover, the next rate hike is still data dependent. This is considered as a dovish tone. In short, nothing has really change in the Fed approach. This is why the US equities closed yesterday’s trading higher.

 

Dovish RBNZ | NZD Spikes

 

The RBNZ also left the current policy unchanged as widely expected, with more dovish remarks. Yet, the New Zealand Dollar spiked across the board. The bank is still hinting for further easing in the coming meetings, calling for further decline in NZD. However, the bank seems to be ok with the current inflation levels, saying that it remains within the desirable range and that there are some signs that inflation is likely to pick up further. In short, the RBNZ might stay with no action at least until after June, which keeps NZD bids on the rise for the time being, which may send NZDUSD above 0.70 in the coming days.

 

DXY Below 94.0 Support Area

 

The US Dollar lost more grounds today after the BoJ decision earlier in Asia, declining below its 94.0 support area all the way to 93.70’s. Such break through that support would clear the way for further declines ahead. However, a catalyst is still needed to keep the bearish outlook unchanged. Such catalyst might come from today’s Q1 GDP figures during the US session. The estimates are to show a growth of 0.7% in Q1 after 1.4% in Q4 of last year, which would be the weakest growth rate since Q1 of last year. The next support area stands at 93.60 followed by 93.20’s.

 

GBPUSD Still Strangling Below 1.46

 

GBPUSD has tried to break above 1.46 for the past two days and today. However, the pair failed to stabilize above that resistance, which eases the bullish outlook. In the meantime the technical indicators are heavily overbought on the daily chart and most of the timeframes, which could be a sign for a new top in GBPUSD ahead of the referendum in June. We prefer to short GBPUSD with stop above 1.4680 looking for another leg lower to 1.4324.

 

Attachments

Japan Nationwide Core CPI USD Index - Daily GBPUSD - Daily

USD Under Pressure Ahead of FOMC Decision

Post date: Wednesday, April 27 , 2016 - 11:28 UTC
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USD Nearing 94.0 Support Area

 

The US Dollar lost more grounds yesterday inline with our expectations as we noted in our previous report, declining back below 94.50all the way to 94.40 support area earlier this morning, while the technical indicators has turned lower again after reaching overbought territory. In the meantime, 94.0 remains a solid support area which should be watched very carefully in the coming hours, while a breakthrough that support may clear the way for further declines ahead.

 

Weaker Data To Weight on Q1 GDP Forecast

 

The US Dollar declined on the back of weaker economic releases, including the Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, S&P Composite 20 HPI, CB Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, while the only positive outcome was the Flash Services PMI, such figures is likely to weight on Q1 GDP estimates, which stands at around 0.3% according to the Atlanta Fed GDP forecast.

 

Core Durable Goods Orders unexpectedly declined for the second month in a row, declining by -0.24% in March, despite the fact that the estimates were to rise by 0.5%. Moreover, the Durable Goods Orders increased by less than expected, rising by 0.8% while it had been anticipated to rise by 1.9%. Furthermore, the previous reading (February) has been revised lower to -1.3% instead of -3.0%.

 

The Consumer Confidence Index eased back by more than expected, declining to 94.2 in April down from 96.1 in March (Revised from 96.2), while the estimates were to decline slightly to 95.8. This is the lowest level in two months.

 

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slowed down to 14 in April down from 22 in March, but this is better than the 12 estimated. Moreover, this is the second positive reading in a row, one we have not seen since December of last year, also this is the second largest increase since 2014.

 

RBA May Cut Rates Soon

 

In Asia today, disturbing news came out from Australia, sending the Aussie lower across the board as the QoQ CPI unexpectedly declined by the most since Q4 of 2008, declining by -0.2%, despite the fact that the estimates were to rise by 0.2%. Moreover, the YoY CPI slowed down back to 1.3% which is the lowest level since Q1 of last year. Such outcome may put a new pressure on the RBA to move again in the coming months, which set to weight on the Aussie in the coming weeks. In the meantime, the next support in AUSUSD stands at 0.7598.

 

UK GDP Slows in Q1

 

The UK GDP came in inline with the market estimates, growing by 0.4% in Q1 of this year, compared to 0.6% in Q4 of last year. Yet, this is the second weakest growth rate since Q4 of 2012. Construction declined by 0.9%, Industrial and Manufacturing Production are also down by 0.4%, while Services increased by 0.6%. These figures matches the Bank of England staff projections, which likely to keep the BoE tone unchanged for the time being. This is why, GBPUSD advanced above 1.4580’s right after the announcement. However, a tight range is more likely ahead of the FOMC decision.

 

Gold & Silver Bids Continues

 

Gold and Silver are recovering after last week’s decline. Gold is up by more than $6 reaching as high as $1248, while the next immediate resistance stands at $1250 followed by $1260. On the downside view, Gold is likely to remain supported by its 50DMA which stands at $1238. Silver is adding more than 1% of gains since the beginning of the day after closing above $17 for the first time since June of last year, which keeps the bullish outlook unchanged throughout the week. The next immediate resistance stands at $17.40 followed by $17.69. 

 

EURUSD Stable Above 1.13

 

The Euro continued to stabilize above 1.13 since the beginning of the day. However, the momentum is not good enough to break above 1.1330’s so far. In the meantime, a tight range is more likely ahead of the FOMC decision. However, the technical indicators are suggesting that another push above that resistance is more likely.

 

FOMC Decision Today

 

The most important event today which may keep the markets in a tight range throughout the day is the FOMC decision later tonight at 10PM AD time which is around 06:00 PM GMT+

 

We believe that the Federal Reserve will keep the current policy unchanged with a possibility to hint for a rate hike in June. Yet, a dovish tone is more likely given the fact that the recent economic releases are not supporting the Federal Reserve view.

 

Attachments

USD Index - Daily US Core Durable Goods Orders MoM US Durable Goods Orders MoM US CB Consumer Confidence US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index US Services PMI Australia CPI QoQ Australia CPI YoY AUDUSD Daily UK GDP QoQ GBPUSD Daily Gold Daily Silver Daily EURUSD Daily

Commodities Recovery Continues | Eyes on Today’s ECB Decision

Post date: Thursday, April 21 , 2016 - 10:12 UTC
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USD Short Term Rally

 

The US Dollar recovered slightly yesterday on the back of a strong housing figures, the Dollar Index spiked to 94.50’s but remained well below its short term down trend resistance line. Yet, the technical indicators remain bearish on the day which, for us, keeps the current rally as a short term retracement before the downside trend resumes. In the meantime, 94.0 is acting as a solid support area. A break through 94.0 would deepen the bearish outlook over the coming days and weeks.  If we look at the upside view, a break above the short term trend line resistance may clear the way for further gains toward 94.70 and 95.0.

 

Better Than Expected Existing Home Sales

 

The Existing Home Sales came in much better than expected yesterday, rising by the most in three months up 5.13% in March after declining by more than 7.3% in February of this year, while the estimates were to side further by 3.9% only.

 

Gold & Silver Are Not Done

 

Silver remained very strong yesterday and earlier this morning, adding more than 2% of gains so far, trading around 17.32, while the next obstacle resistance remains at 17.40 for the time being. Gold declined below 1240 yesterday, but managed to recover earlier this morning above 1252, which keeps our bullish outlook unchanged toward 1260 for the time being.

 

UK’s Retail Sales Disappoints

 

The UK Retail Sales came in worse than expected, which out some pressure on Q1 GDP estimates which could come in around 0.4% to 0.5%, leading GBPUSD to decline back to a new session low around 1.43.

 

The Retail Sales declined by the most since December of last year, declining by -1.3% in March, while the estimates where to decline by -0.1% only. Moreover, the previous reading has been revised lower to a decline of -0.5% instead of -0.4%. the YoY Retail Sales slowed down contrary to the market estimates, declining to 2.7% down from 3.6% despite the fact that the estimates were to rise toward 4.4%. This is the second decline in a row and the lowest reading since December of last year.

 

The Core Retail Sales also came in with a notable decline, falling by the most since January of 2014, a drop of -1.6% in March after declining by -0.3% in February (revised from -0.2%), while the estimates were to decline by -0.3%. This is also the second monthly decline in a row, one we have not seen since 2013. The YoY Core Sales also slowed down to 1.8% down from 3.7% (Revised from 4.1%), while the estimates were to decline to 3.8% only. This is the lowest reading since December of last year.

 

Eyes on ECB Decision Ahead

 

All eyes are on the ECB decision later today. We are not expecting any significant decisions today; the ECB is set to keep the current policy unchanged. However, everyone will be watching Mr. Mario Draghi press conference, which will have the biggest impact on the markets today. Traders needs to be aware that commodities rally might lead Draghi to be a little bit positive toward inflation, which means, that the ECB might not do anything else throughout the year. In return, the Euro might be above 1.14 at the end of the day.

 

Attachments

USD Index - Daily US Existing Home Sales Silver - Daily Gold Daily UK Retail Sales MoM UK Core Retail Sales MoM

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