Whats Next After UK Budget

Post date: Tuesday, June 22 , 2010 - 07:00 UTC
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As we mentioned in our previous latest markets update about the British pound that GBPUSD is testing 3 major levels and that Friday should be a U turn day after failed to break above that 3 major levels, the pair fell toward 1.4680 today but couldn’t hold that much especially after announcing the UK Budget which was favorable for the pound on the short term, as for the medium term and long term, cutting the spending remain a negative sign for the British pound which likely to add more medium weight on the pair for the next few weeks.

As for the euro and as warned before that the key resistance remain at 1.2450 and the pair posted a daily high on Monday at 1.2466 before trending lower again, for now the next target for EURUSD would be 1.2222 followed by 1.2150 later this week.

DowJones has also failed to break above 100 DAY Moving Average around 10520 despite the Chinese decision about flexible YUAN, and dropped back to trade around 10260 during today session, we do expect another short selling wave till the end of this week toward 10,000.

End of the week

Post date: Friday, June 18 , 2010 - 04:00 UTC
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We are keeping a close eye this week on both GBPUSD and EURUSD in our markets update as they are the highest performance currencies since the beginning of the week, GBPUSD has failed for the 5th day in breaking above 1.4840 and 1.4818 resistance level after it post a daily high around 1.4885 rejected by 55 and 55 DAY Moving Average and back to trade at 1.4780, while EURUSD couldn’t break above 1.24 and back to trade below 1.2375 resistance level.

Oil prices also failed to break above 200 DAY Moving Average again and 50% Retracement from MAY high around 86.75 till MAY low around 67.15, watch this level carefully today, eyes on 75.00 USD/ Barrel.

Uk Retail Sales and GBPUSD

Post date: Thursday, June 17 , 2010 - 04:00 UTC
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UK Retail Sales went out in early morning with better than expected figures at 0.6% vs 0.0% ( Revised ) which pushed GBPUSD higher again after it posted a daily low at 1.4643 toward 1.4836, but again there is no CLEAR break above 1.4814 and 1.4840 till now in both 4H and Daily Chart, this could mean that this level is the final resistance level for the up-move retracement, the down trend remain solid but needs some bad economic data to drop further again.

As for the European currency, testing 1.2375 right now and we have to wait for the daily close to see if there is a clear break, if so then EURUSD could find the final obstacle resistance at 1.2450 which represent the next short selling point toward 1.20 again.

Equities opened lower today, DowJones fell to 10331 till now and we are expecting it to continue with this down move toward 200 DAY MA around 10280.

Calmness Trading Day

Post date: Wednesday, June 16 , 2010 - 09:15 UTC
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Calmness trading day again with a range of 100 pips on most majors, but GBPUSD has failed to break above 1.4818 again without any clear close above 1.4818 resistance level on 4H and the Daily chart as well, this could lead us that the pair could be topping and likely to begin with its major down trend again targeting at least 1.4650, as for the European currency it couldn’t reaches 1.2375 resistance level and remain at 1.23 with more than 60% chance that the retracement is already over, we do expect that the major down trend will continue till the end of the week targeting 1.2170.


Post date: Tuesday, June 15 , 2010 - 04:00 UTC
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Currencies has ended its retracement to the upside and today its likely to continue with its major down trend again, the European currency likely test 1.2150 support with 70% chance to see a break below that level toward 1.2100. as for the British Pound traders should keep an eye on UK CPI Y/Y which is expected to show a little bit of improvement to -1.03B vs -1.34B, disappointing data would lead GBPUSD toward 1.4630 followed by 1.4545.

Risk Aversion back to the markets

Post date: Monday, June 14 , 2010 - 04:00 UTC
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USDX dropped back again since Asia trading session till now ( NYSE Session ) near its 100 DAY Moving Average which is unlikely to broken by any chance as it represents a solid support level in the long term, more over we have another GAP down in VIX Index, and this could be another sign for USDX bottoming.

Many things to look at right now, DowJones Industrial Average trading around its 100 Day MA, short selling pressure likely to begin within the next few hours or at least we should not see a daily close above 10280 ( 100 DAY MA ).


Moody's Downgrades Greece Debit to JUNK!

Post date: Monday, June 14 , 2010 - 04:00 UTC
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Another time, Moody’s Downgrades Greece Debit to JUNK!!, more bad news for the EU Economic Condition and the European currency as well, the euro fell from its daily high around 1.2297 to 1.2220, be ware from the False breaks In the euro and/or cable just like what happened in late April, for now the major trend remain to the down side with no change and EURUSD remain capped below 1.23 and likely to push back toward 1.20 later this week.